Method and system for analyzing and predicting the performance of computer network using time series measurements
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United States of America Patent
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Oct 9, 2007
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app pub date -
Dec 19, 2002
filing date -
Dec 19, 2001
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Abstract
A monitoring system including a baseline model that automatically captures and models normal system behavior, a correlation model that employs multivariate autoregression analysis to detect abnormal system behavior, and an alarm service that weights and scores a variety of alerts to determine an alarm status and implement appropriate response actions. The baseline model decomposes the input variables into a number of components representing relatively predictable behaviors so that the erratic component e(t) may be isolated for further processing. These components include a global trend component, a cyclical component, and a seasonal component. Modeling and continually updating these components separately permits a more accurate identification of the erratic component of the input variable, which typically reflects abnormal patterns when they occur.
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