Adoption simulation with evidential reasoning using agent models in a hierarchical structure
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United States of America Patent
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Feb 3, 2015
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Nov 15, 2012
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Nov 16, 2011
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Abstract
A method and system for an agent-based evidential reasoning decision computer system for determining an adoption rate of a trend is provided. The system includes a plurality of nodes arranged in a tree structure. The plurality of nodes define an evidential reasoning algorithm where lower level nodes receive factors to be considered in the decision and each node assigns a likelihood of an outcome of the received factors, and generates an output to a subsequent higher level node or root of the tree structure. The system also includes a plurality of agent models organized in a hierarchical structure, each agent model comprising a respective set of the plurality of nodes and an output of the agent model, each agent model representing a member of a population, and an aggregator algorithm configured to combine the outputs of the plurality of agent models to generate an output representing an adoption rate.
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