Importance

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Abstract

In a transportation system, identifying factors that contribute to schedule deviation provides for improving the operation of the system. A processing device collects operational information related to the operation of at least one vehicle along a transportation route. The device determines a plurality of actual scheduled arrivals for the transportation route and compare the operating information with the actual scheduled arrivals to determine mean delay data for each driver. The device determines schedule deviation for each driver based upon the operating information and fits the mean delay data for each driver, standard deviation delay data for each driver, and the schedule deviation information for each driver into a results set. The device fits the data using a maximum likelihood modeling technique and/or a Bayesian modeling technique. The results set are presented to a manager or another similar authority role in the transportation system for further action.

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First Claim