Evaluation of predictions in the absence of a known ground truth
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United States of America Patent
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Feb 9, 2021
Grant Date -
Apr 13, 2017
app pub date -
Dec 21, 2016
filing date -
Mar 14, 2013
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Abstract
Disclosed is a novel system, and method to evaluate a prediction of a possibly unknown outcome out of a plurality of predictions of that outcome. The method begins with accessing a particular prediction of an outcome out of a plurality of predictions of that outcome in which the outcome may be unknown. Next, a subsample of the plurality of predictions of the outcome is accessed. The subsample can possibly include the particular prediction. A consensus prediction of the outcome based on the subsample of the plurality of predictions is determined. A proximity of the particular prediction to the consensus prediction is determined Each prediction is ranked out of the plurality of predictions in an order of a closest in proximity to the consensus prediction to a farthest in proximity to the consensus prediction.
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