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Abstract

A method for forecasting flood, the method including: 1) collecting historical flood information, estimating a mean concentration time of a basin, and determining a length of a lead time; 2) establishing hydrological models, inputting hydrological variables including precipitation and evaporation to the hydrological models while neglecting the precipitation within lead times; 3) determining an objective function, which is a sum of squared errors between a forecasted streamflow and an observed streamflow within multiple lead times, and utilizing optimized algorithms to calibrate hydrological model parameters; and 4) selecting criteria to evaluate forecasting performance of the hydrological model including a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, a root mean square error, a water balance index, a qualified rate of peak flow, and a qualified rate of a peak time.

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