COMPUTER-IMPLEMENTED METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY IN TRAJECTORY PREDICTION
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United States of America
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Issued Date -
Feb 13, 2020
app pub date -
Aug 9, 2019
filing date -
Aug 9, 2019
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Abstract
A system and a computer-implemented method for evaluating uncertainty of a predicted trajectory infrastructure is disclosed The method comprises collecting a plurality of data sets from a predicted trajectory: comprising providing an aircraft intent description based on the predicted trajectory; selecting both a point in time and one or more variables among the collected plurality of data sets as sources of uncertainty; representing each selected variable at the selected point in time as a uni-variable polynomial expansion; representing each non-selected variable by a single point; and combining selected and non-selected variables into a multi-variable polynomial chaos expansion representing a stochastic prediction of the aircraft's trajectory at the selected point in time and a measurement of a sensitivity of the prediction to each of the selected one or more sources of uncertainty.
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