Method of eliciting unbiased forecasts by relating a forecaster's pay to the forecaster's contribution to a collective forecast
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United States of America Patent
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Mar 4, 1997
Issued Date -
N/A
app pub date -
Feb 17, 1995
filing date -
Mar 19, 1990
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Abstract
A method of eliciting an unbiased prediction of an unknown variable value from at least one of a group of forecasters. This method of compensating individual forecasters can be applied to an entire group of forecasters so as to elicit an unbiased collective prediction. The method yields nearly unbiased predictions from risk-averse forecasters whenever at least two forecasters are employed to make the same prediction. The method involves: aggregating the predictions of the forecasters, both with and without the particular prediction of the individual forecaster; computing collective losses for both of the aggregated predictions; calculating the individual forecaster's marginal contribution to predictive accuracy, based on the difference in collective losses; and computing and paying the individual forecaster's compensation as a function of the individual's marginal contribution.
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