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Abstract

A demand forecasting and production scheduling system and method creates production schedules for various business items describing a forecasted demand for the business items in a number of future time intervals. The system includes a computer managed database of various profiles, including a base profile for each business item, and a number of influence profiles. The profiles describe variations in demand for the business item in a number of time intervals. The base profile describes an underlying level of demand for a business item that is anticipated for the business item absent any influencing factors, such as promotional sales, holidays, weather variations, and the like. The variations in demand for the business item due to such influence factors are stored in the database as influence profiles. The influence profiles may be either standard, percentage, or seasonal. The forecasted demand for a business item in a number of future time intervals is determined by selective combination of the base profile for the business item and any number of influence profiles. The forecasted demand is stored in the database in a forecast profile. From the forecast profile a production schedule is created, and the business item provided according to the production schedule. Actual demand for the business item is monitored and stored. The variation between actual demand and the forecasted demand is used to update the base and influence profiles. From the updated base and influence profiles the forecasted demand is redetermined, and the production schedule updated accordingly.

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