Importance

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Abstract

Durations of activities in forming a system (the 'current system') are estimated, using data including i) durations of first activities and scores for a number of previously formed systems (the 'past systems'), ii) scores for the current system, and iii) a model defining a relationship between duration of the first activities and such scores. A factor for the model is computed in response to the first activities and scores for the past systems. An expected duration for first activities of the current system is computed in response to the computed factor and the scores for the current system. The scores for such systems are generated by defining and scoring subsystems for the system and combining the scores of the subsystems. Scoring further includes identifying risks having a potential impact on duration of the activities and assigning weights to the risks; identifying a number of possible conditions ('PC's') relating to the risks, associating degrees of the risks with the PC's, such as by ranking the PC's; defining a relation between an expected condition ('EC') and the PC's; and computing a score in response to the EC's, relations between EC's and PC's, the degrees of risks associated with the PC's, such as may be defined by the rank of the PC's and the weights of the risks.

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