Importance

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Abstract

A Bayesian network includes a set of nodes representing discrete-valued variables. A plurality of arcs connect nodes from the set of nodes. The arcs represent the causal dependencies between the nodes. A prior marginal probability value is associated with each leaf node. The prior marginal probability values are calculated by first estimating conditional probabilities for nodes. For example, for each node with parent nodes, knowledge acquisition questions are developed which when answered will indicate the conditional probability of each parent node of the node. The questions and answer assume a single occurrence of a fault (the single-fault assumption). That is, it is assumed that one and only one variable represented by the plurality of parent nodes will be in its positive state (i.e., the fault will occur). Thus a sum of the conditional probabilities for all variables represented by all parent nodes for any particular node will always be equal to one. Constraint nodes are added to the Bayesian network to enforce the single occurrence assumption. In order to obtain a prior marginal probability for each leaf node, a conditional probability of the leaf node is multiplied with conditional probabilities for each node which is a descendent of the leaf node.

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First Claim