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Abstract

A stand-alone computer application for solving decision problems, conducting decision and risk analyses, and for globally optimizing the operation of systems and processes is disclosed. Running on a personal computer, the application embodies three major methods. The first method is project oriented and includes highly modularized procedures for solving and analyzing sequential, probabilistic and multi-objective decision problems. It enables a user to specify and to seamlessly integrate prioritized objectives, performance measures, utility functions, decisions, choices, outcomes, probabilities, multi-dimensional costs and external parameters into an objectives-based decision model. It further includes procedures to assist a user in the construction of objectives hierarchies, utility functions, cost functions and probability expressions. The second method generalizes the first method into a system controller for globally optimizing a process or system whose operation involves sequential probabilistic and multi-objective decisions that cannot be addressed using conventional linear, non-linear and stochastic control methods. It provides a framework for modeling hybrid discrete-continuous control systems where discrete events and processes are modeled at upper levels of a control hierarchy and continuous processes are modeled at lower levels. The third method provides a multiple-window graphical user interface to assist a user in applying the first two methods, and includes procedures for manipulating and editing textual and graphical outputs.

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First Claim