Utilizing joint-probabilistic ensemble forecasting to generate improved digital predictions
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United States of America
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Jan 18, 2022
Grant Date -
Apr 18, 2019
app pub date -
Oct 13, 2017
filing date -
Oct 13, 2017
priority date (Note) -
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Abstract
Methods, systems, and computer readable storage media are disclosed for generating joint-probabilistic ensemble forecasts for future events based on a plurality of different prediction models for the future events. For example, in one or more embodiments the disclosed system determines error values for various predictions from a plurality of different prediction models (i.e., “forecasters”) for previous events. Moreover, in one or more embodiments the system generates an error probability density function by mapping the error values to an error space and applying a kernel density estimation. Furthermore, the system can apply the error probability density function(s) to a plurality of predictions from the forecasters for a future event to generate a likelihood function and a new prediction for the future event.
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